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Gold, Tariffs & Fed Watch: America’s Precious Metals Crossroads

Plus: Tariffs, Fed jitters, and a silver story waiting to break out

Author

Silver Nutshell
August 20, 2025

What’s sizzling today in the U.S.…

🥇 Gold steadies near 3-week lows
🥈 Silver takes a breather but YTD gains stay strong
📉 Trump’s tariff flip-flop whipsaws U.S. traders
📰 Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting could light the next fuse

GOLD IN THE AMERICAN SPOTLIGHT 💰

  • Spot gold sits around $3,322/oz, with U.S. futures near $3,364/oz — near 3-week lows after the dollar climbed to a one-week high. Stronger dollar = weaker foreign demand for U.S. bullion. 【reuters】

  • Even so, gold is still the best performing U.S. asset in 2025: up 28% YTD, beating the S&P 500, Treasuries, and even Bitcoin. 【marketwatch】

  • ETF Surge: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) pulled in nearly $10B this year, the strongest inflow since 2011, showing U.S. institutions are treating gold as “monetary insurance.” 【marketwatch】

“Washington can print dollars, but it can’t print trust. That’s why U.S. investors are piling into gold.”
— MacroAlchemist @RealSoundMoney

SILVER’S U.S. STORY 🥈

  • Silver trades around $38/oz, slipping 0.5% today but still up nearly 30% in 2025.

  • U.S. demand is industrial-heavy: defense contracts, solar manufacturing, and EV growth keep silver’s floor higher than past cycles.

  • Analysts warn: If gold keeps consolidating above $3,300, U.S. retail traders could jump back into silver ETFs like SLV, setting off a sympathy rally.

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THE TARIFF WHIPLASH 🇺🇸

  • Aug 8: Gold futures spiked to an all-time high of $3,534/oz after Trump floated tariffs on 1-kg gold bars, including imports from Switzerland. 【businessinsider】

  • Aug 11: Trump reversed course — “Gold will not be tariffed!” — pulling bullion back down but leaving traders bruised. 【bloomberg】

  • Today: The U.S. tariff machine is still grinding. Trump’s 50% tariff on Indian imports (punishment for Russian oil ties) takes effect Aug 27, raising fears of higher U.S. consumer prices across textiles, steel, and pharma. 【wikipedia】

FED WATCH: JACKSON HOLE ON DECK ⏰

  • The Fed’s pause at 4.25–4.50% is holding, but investors want clarity.

  • Powell’s Jackson Hole speech this week is expected to hint at whether cuts begin in September — a dovish tilt could catapult gold higher. 【reuters】

  • UBS still sees gold at $3,600 by March 2026, with potential for $3,700 by late 2026 if real yields turn negative. 【marketwatch】

LAW & ORDER POLITICS ⚖️

  • Trump is rolling out a domestic crackdown, sending DHS and National Guard into crime-hit cities and pushing laws to try offenders as young as 14 as adults.

  • For markets, it adds another layer of political friction that historically strengthens safe-haven demand (think 1970s stagflation + unrest).

TL;DR — U.S. Market Cheat Sheet 🇺🇸

Theme

Takeaway

Gold Price

$3,322 spot, $3,364 futures; near 3-week lows but still YTD’s top U.S. asset (+28%).

Silver Price

$38; YTD up ~30%, watching gold for cues.

Tariffs

Trump’s flip-flop on gold bars calmed markets, but 50% tariff on Indian imports hits Aug 27.

Fed Outlook

Jackson Hole key; cuts in Sept could ignite another gold rally.

Politics

Domestic crackdown + trade war = higher safe-haven demand.

HOW DID WE DO? 🤷

🥜🥜🥜🥜🥜 “That was pure bullion brilliance.”
🥜🥜🥜 “Solid. But give silver more U.S. flavor.”
🥜 “Tariffs good, tone needs more Trump punch.”