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Trump’s Gulf Tour Sparks Metal Shift
Plus: China Buys, Fed Waits
Silver Nutshell
May 17, 2025
Good morning, stackers. Today’s mix includes geopolitics, stagflation signals, and a surge in East‑West divergence. Silver Nutshell – May 17, 2025 …
We’re the precious metals newsletter that swings harder than a stagflation spike and glows hotter than a currency collapse. 🔥
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🌍 Trump’s Gulf visit and petrodollar pressure
🏦 Stagflation fears rise as sentiment crashes
📰 Ukraine’s offensive sparks European solar surge
📈 China’s liquidity move boosts metal demand
📉 CPI fiction vs. real inflation truths
🔮 And a forecast you won’t hear from CNBC
📊 Market Snapshot – 4:05 AM ET, May 18, 2025
Gold: $3,218.89/oz
Silver: $32.47/oz
Gold/Silver Ratio: 99.2
TRUMP’S GULF TOUR: OIL, AI & DE‑DOLLARIZATION 🌍
“When petrodollars dance with de-dollarization, gold takes center stage.”
Donald Trump’s headline-making return to Middle East diplomacy wasn’t just about optics—it was economic warfare by other means. During his visit, he secured $700 billion in deals with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, emphasizing long-term collaboration in AI, energy, and infrastructure. These sectors rely heavily on silver’s industrial properties—particularly in solar and data systems. Simultaneously, Trump’s rhetoric around “currency independence” and bypassing the dollar in oil settlements sent a clear signal: the global monetary regime is shifting.
Gold responds to these tectonic movements. The mere suggestion of moving away from dollar-denominated energy pricing boosts gold’s narrative as an apolitical reserve asset. As Gulf nations eye alternative anchors—gold’s role only strengthens.
STAGFLATION SIGNALS & AMERICAN ANXIETY 🏦
“Sentiment at 1980 levels means gold’s not just a hedge—it’s insurance.”
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment reading just hit its lowest point since 1980. That’s not a typo—that’s a warning shot. Inflation expectations remain elevated (above 6%), while growth slows. This “stagflation” setup traps the Fed between rising living costs and weak demand.
Historically, precious metals thrive in these conditions. Gold preserves wealth when fiat fails. Meanwhile, silver—though more volatile—benefits as industrial users keep buying even as investors hedge. These metals don’t need a crisis to shine; they need credibility gaps. And those are growing daily.
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UKRAINE’S PUSH & EUROPE’S ENERGY PIVOT 📰
“Geopolitics is the silent hand moving precious-metal markets.”
Ukraine’s military has launched a spring counteroffensive, reigniting fears of an energy supply crunch in Europe. Already, several EU nations have accelerated their shift to renewables, with new solar and wind projects announced in Germany, France, and Poland.
Silver stands to gain directly here. Over 65% of the world’s silver is consumed in industrial applications, and solar demand alone is expected to hit record levels in 2025. Meanwhile, gold benefits from renewed geopolitical instability—especially in a region where trust in the euro is also being tested.
CHINA EASES, DEMAND SURGES 📈
“As China reels in foreign capital, gold glints brightest in Beijing’s eye.”
In a surprise move, China’s central bank lowered its reserve requirement ratio (RRR), boosting liquidity and prompting strong inflows into both industrial and financial sectors. Chinese gold premiums jumped to $50/oz, and silver imports quietly surged 8% month-over-month.
Gold continues to be hoarded by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), not for speculation—but for strategic monetary diversification. Silver, on the other hand, is being consumed at scale across electronics, medical devices, and infrastructure projects. Western investors may be skittish—but the East keeps buying.
CPI MIRAGE VS. METAL REALITY 📉
“Official CPI is a bedtime story; real inflation is the nightmare gold investors wake up to.”
The U.S. CPI says inflation is under control at 2.3%. But anyone buying groceries, rent, or insurance knows better. Truflation pegs real inflation closer to 6.8%. This disconnect is why gold continues to hold its range, even during pullbacks—because pricing power always returns to what people feel, not what governments report.
Silver benefits too—especially as supply tightens while real-world demand grows. Inflation may be “transitory” in theory—but in reality, it's sticky. And in sticky times, tangible assets matter.
WHAT COMES NEXT? 🔮
“Central banks are net buyers. That tells you where price goes next.”
“Silver’s supply gap is already here; it just needs price to catch up.”
With geopolitical tensions rising, sentiment collapsing, and data reliability crumbling, gold and silver aren’t just defensive. They’re offensive tools in a broken system. Watch for more Asian buying, Middle East strategic shifts, and a Western awakening to monetary realism.
HOW DID WE DO? 🤷
🥜🥜🥜🥜🥜 “Brilliant blend of headlines and hard money.”
🥜🥜🥜 “Loved the depth. More mining supply next issue?”
🥜 “Too macro. Wanted charts or price levels.”
DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.